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COVID-19 third wave may peak by November, says scientist

A possible third wave of COVID-19 could peak in November if a new variant, a virus greater than Delta, emerges and becomes fully active by the end of September, a scientist involved in mathematical modeling of the pandemic said on Monday. he said. At the same time, the number of new cases in the third wave may be as high as the second wave and more likely to be on the lines of the first wave.

However, there may not be a third wave, if a new variant, more contagious than the delta, does not emerge, said Manindra Agarwal, a scientist at IIT-Kanpur, who is part of a three-member team of experts that worked to predict the surge. work done. Cases “Based on the new data, the third wave of the coronavirus could peak in November in the country if a new variant is more contagious than the existing ones. “In that circumstance, we may see daily coronavirus cases reaching 1.5 lakh and peak by November. The intensity of the third wave may not be like that of the second wave but may be similar to that of the first,” said Agarwal.

Between March and May, the second wave of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant spread across the country, infecting millions and killing thousands. On 7 May, 4,14,188 Kovid-19 cases were registered in the country.

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